Uzbekistan's exports are projected to increase by 2025, according to forecasts from the regulatory authority.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan (CB) has presented a detailed economic forecast for 2025, showcasing both the resilience of the national economy in the face of global economic challenges and ongoing structural imbalances.

Economic Growth Forecasts and Key Factors:

According to the CB, a slowdown in economic growth is expected among Uzbekistan's key trading partners in 2025: China (from 4.8% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025), Russia (from 3.6% to 1.3%), Turkey (from 3.6% to 2.7%), and Kazakhstan (from 3.5% to 4.6%). Nonetheless, domestic exports are projected to grow by 9-11%, driven by stable prices for key raw materials (gold, copper, uranium), along with a slight increase in cotton prices. It is also noted that Uzbekistan's real GDP is expected to rise by 5.5-6%.

At the same time, an import increase of 8-10% is forecasted, driven by high domestic demand for machinery and equipment, vehicles, fuel and energy products, food, and raw materials. The CB also anticipates a rise in remittances by 10-12%, reflecting positive trends in the labor market in migrant-receiving countries and wage growth.

Impact of Global Economic Factors:

The CB indicates that the easing of global financial conditions and a reduction in interest rates (with an average decline in the SOFR rate of 0.7% since the beginning of the year) will lead to lower costs for servicing external debt. Additionally, it is expected that the positive balance of primary and secondary income components will increase by 8-10%, which will partially offset the trade balance deficit.

Balance of Payments and Financing the Deficit:

Despite positive trends in exports and remittances, the CB forecasts a current account deficit of 5-6.5% of GDP by the end of 2025. This deficit is planned to be covered through foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, and external borrowings.

Caveats and Future Adjustments:

It is emphasized that the presented forecast figures are preliminary and will be revised throughout 2025 in light of changes in internal and external factors. In particular, fluctuations in global commodity prices, geopolitical events, and changes in economic policy will be taken into account.