S&P forecasts that Uzbekistan's economy will slow down in 2023.

The international agency S&P forecasts a slowdown in Uzbekistan's economic growth to 5%. This is stated in the organization's report.

The document notes that Uzbekistan coped better with the consequences of the war in Ukraine in 2022 than initially expected. The positive reaction is attributed to an increase in remittances from Russia along with a rise in trade with the RF.

S&P anticipates that this year the country's economic outlook will be more volatile amid the ongoing war, a slowdown in global economic growth, and inflationary pressures. The increase in remittances, capital inflows, and migrants observed in 2022, according to analysts, will be temporary, and the situation may change this year, — states the S&P report.

Key positive factors:

- favorable growth forecasts due to the development of new businesses;

- inflow of deposits from non-residents and skilled migrants;

- less aggressive growth in lending.

Key negative factors:

- low standard of living for the population;

- weak development of institutions, reflecting relatively low supervisory efficiency in the past;

- weak management and transparency standards;

- slow privatization;

- significant government intervention.

Analysts predict that the economic situation will allow lending to grow by 25-30% by 2024, in contrast to moderate growth in 2022. Despite some progress, the level of dollarization is likely to remain high in the next two years.

In 2022, GDP per capita rose by 9.3% to reach $2,146.7, which is the lowest level of wealth among comparable countries and may limit the economy's ability to "withstand the consequences of potential stress situations." However, the agency believes that real income levels may be higher than official data due to the significant volume of the shadow economy.

According to S&P, by 2025, the government's net debt will reach 23% of GDP; however, this level is considered low in an international context. The current account deficit will average 6% of GDP over the next three years but will be covered by inflows of foreign direct investment and debt.