Central Asia: Impact of the Ukraine Crisis - EBRD

In the February report, EBRD experts noted the relatively modest consequences of the war in Ukraine for Central Asia. 

For instance, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have seen significant revenues from oil and gas sales due to rising prices. In the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, there has been a notable increase in the influx of labor, capital, and remittances. 

The report also highlights the advantageous position of the economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus due to intermediary trade, capital inflow, and educated migrants from Russia. It is anticipated that as a result, production volume in Central Asia will grow by 4.9% in 2023.

In the short term, the regions are likely to maintain high growth. However, all Central Asian economies are facing challenges related to inflation and high debt servicing costs. 

From the Editor:

According to new EBRD forecasts, Uzbekistan's GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2023 and by 7% in 2024. 

Economists also point out that real wage growth across Central Asia remains robust despite the war. In Uzbekistan, it stands at 13%. Kyrgyzstan leads in this category with nearly 30% growth. 

As many Western companies exit the Russian market and Russian ports face sanctions, Central Asian countries have begun to trade more frequently with Russia and China. The Central Asian nations have started to export their own products (textiles and electronics) more intensively and provide logistics services. 

Eziz Boyarov, Ashgabat